Search Articles

Home / Articles

Erection of Spatial- Network Disease Models for Novel COVID- 2019 with Lockdown/ Quarantine and Effects of Social Distancing

. Muhammad Ilyas, Shaheen Abbas, Afzal Ali, Syed Akhtar Raza and Wajid Ali


Abstract

The present study is assessed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) disease on network structure by spatial model erection. These network models are articulated to deliver the pandemic and elimination of the (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2). The dynamics of the epidemic novel disease COVID-19 in the country of Pakistan is revealed using the spatial SIR-SEIR models in the activated extent (from 26 February to 31 July 2020).These models are described the pandemic transverse the domain depending on some obliteration and control measures. The quarantine/lockdown is merged into the SIR-SEIR models. The infectious and recovery tracing parameters (β,  , α and γ) are main parameters of the epidemic, for which the proportion of the decisive number of infections to the peak infections proportion can be found methodically a perpetual decrease in the contact rate in contrast, social distancing consents to complete and not revive the pandemic when the distance is reduced, to the extent that the number of infectious uninterrupted in the limit that γ→ ∞, an epidemic has been declined, although some virus persist except in isolated public areas, and the epidemic rejoinder when social distances shrink, the pandemic is started again, All over world is adopted social distancing as an anticipation dimension to reduce spread. The effect of social distancing showed that with in social distancing can spread rapidly from polynomial to Linear (R2 = 0.91), breakage of social distancing disease pandemic rises 4th degree polynomial (R2 = 0.812). Our results are detected that the proposed model parameters are more accurate in estimating the spread of disease.

 

.

 

Index Terms- Corona Virus (COVID-19), Quarantine, Lockdown, Social Distancing, Spatial Network, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR).

Download :