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The Impact of Economic Development Indicators on the Performance of the Damascus Securities Exchange During the Syrian Revolution (2011-2023) - An Analytical Study-

. Anas Radwan Salim & Dr. Firas Shaabo


Abstract

This study aimed to demonstrate the impact of economic development indicators on the performance of the Damascus Securities Exchange during the Syrian Revolution between 2011 and 2023. The researcher adopted a descriptive-analytical approach as it addresses a real-world phenomenon. SPSS and EViews software were used to study the effect of economic development indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Net Domestic Product (NDP) (comprising industrial, agricultural, and service production), on the market index using multiple regression analysis.

The study found no statistically significant impact at a significance level of (α ≤ 0.05) of the Gross Domestic Product on the Damascus Securities Exchange index (trading volume) during the period 2011-2023. However, a statistically significant impact was found at a significance level of (α ≤ 0.05) of the Net Domestic Product on the Damascus Securities Exchange index (trading volume) during the same period, with a good positive correlation of 56.4%. Additionally, a statistically significant impact was found at a significance level of (α ≤ 0.05) for industrial and agricultural production as the most influential factors on the market index (trading volume), while no impact was found for service production. This is attributed to market fluctuations and interest rate decisions by the Central Bank.

The study recommends enhancing the monitoring and analysis of industrial production indicators periodically and integrating these indicators into market movement forecasting models due to their potential role in explaining or predicting trading trends. It also recommends the necessity of monitoring the performance of the agricultural sector and integrating it into the economic indicators affecting financial market movements, given its role in explaining or influencing the general market index's volatility, especially during periods when this sector experiences a clear contraction.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, Net Domestic Product, Damascus Securities Exchange Index, Economic Development Indicators

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