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Is MIDAS a Proper Predictor Model? What Iran’s Agriculture Data Say

. Zeynab Omidvar Reza Moghaddasi and Amir Mohammadinejad


One of the most important sectors of the economy that is important to know how it will work in the future is the agricultural sector. Today, it is important to anticipate macro-indicators for the agricultural sector for planners and policymakers. For this purpose, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the macro indicators of the agricultural sector by the regression model with mixed data (Midas), which is very different due to the nature of agricultural data and the different pattern of agricultural data reporting and different frequency for them. It is useful and important. The period under study in this study is from 1392 to the end of 1397. The data set for agricultural value added, agricultural exports and agricultural imports in this research is monthly and the variables of inflation and exchange rate have annual data and seasonal temperature and precipitation will be considered. Finally, after fitting the Midas regression models, it is concluded that the exchange rate and inflation variables have a significant effect on all equations, and the temperature has a significant effect on value added and exports, and the amount of precipitation in any of the estimates. The study does not have a significant effect.

Keywords: MIDAS regression; Forecasting; Agriculture; Iran

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