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Capital Structure and Market Valuation in Emerging Economy: The Moderating Role of Debt Ratio on the Profitability - Stock Prices Nexus in Syria

. Dr Mouhanad Arnaout


Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates how return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and earnings per share (EPS) influence stock prices. Additionally, it explores the moderating effect of the debt ratio on the relationship between firm profitability and stock prices

 

Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing a quantitative analytical framework with a deductive approach, the research applies a fixed effect model (FEM) to analyze annual data from 17 Syrian firms during the period from 2013 to 2023.

 

Findings: The results indicate that return on assets (ROA) and earnings per share (EPS) significantly and positively influence stock prices, highlighting their critical role as performance indicators for investors. The debt ratio was also found to have a significant negative impact, emphasizing the importance of careful leverage management to maintain investor confidence. Notably, return on equity (ROE) alone did not significantly affect stock prices; however, the interaction between ROE and the debt ratio was statistically significant, suggesting that the influence of ROE on stock prices may be contingent upon the firm's capital structure.

 

Recommendation: Companies should prioritize maintaining an optimal balance in their debt levels to ensure investor confidence remains high. Additionally, management teams should concentrate on enhancing asset utilization and improving cost efficiency, as these factors are vital indicators of a firm's overall value from an investment perspective. Furthermore, it's crucial for policymakers to strengthen financial disclosure standards and promote investor education, which can lead to a more informed investment environment and ultimately benefit market stability.

 

Index terms: Return on Assets, Return on Equity, Earnings Per Share, Debt Ratio, Fixed Effects Model.

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