Natural disasters pose significant challenges to economic growth, particularly in low-income and climate vulnerable countries such as Mozambique. This study investigates the effect of natural disasters on Mozambique’s economic growth using annual data from 2000 to 2024 (n=25), with a focus on major cyclones such as Idai and Kenneth in 2019. Using time-series data from the World Bank and EM-DAT, and applying an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model, the study assesses the impact of the lagged number of people affected by disasters (LNAFFECTED) and inflation (INFL) on GDP growth. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative effect of disasters on economic growth, confirming that large-scale events disrupt infrastructure, reduce agricultural productivity, and displace labor (World Bank, 2020; UNDRR, 2022). Conversely, inflation exhibited no significant impact, suggesting that structural shocks from disasters outweigh macroeconomic price instability in driving growth volatility. These results underscore the need for Mozambique to strengthen disaster resilience through infrastructure investment, early warning systems, and economic diversification (IMF, 2021; World Bank, 2022). This is the first country specific time series study quantifying Mozambique’s disaster growth nexus, and it contributes to the disaster growth literature by highlighting the persistence of structural breaks in fragile economies and provides empirical evidence for integrating disaster risk management into long-term development strategies.

Index Terms- Natural disasters, Economic growth, Mozambique, Disaster resilience