This study examines whether technological supervision in universities functions primarily as a form of digital surveillance or as a mechanism for enhancing staff performance, with particular emphasis on the mediating role of enforcement credibility and the moderating role of institutional context. Leveraging Behavioural Control Theory and Performance Management Theory, the study develops the Context-Contingent Technological Supervision Framework (CCTSF) to explain how digital monitoring systems influence staff punctuality through a conditional process mechanism. A quantitative survey design was adopted, using data from 346 academic and non-academic staff across selected public and private universities in South-East Nigeria. Data were analysed using Hayes’ PROCESS Macro (Model 7) with bootstrapping (5,000 resamples). The findings indicate that technological supervision is positively correlated with enforcement credibility, which in turn significantly forecasts staff punctuality. The indirect effect was statistically significant (β = 0.186, 95% CI [0.115, 0.267]), indicating partial mediation. Further analysis reveals that institutional context significantly moderates this relationship, with a stronger indirect effect observed in private universities (β = 0.241) compared to public universities (β = 0.132). The index of moderated mediation (β = 0.109, 95% CI [0.051, 0.178]) confirms that the mediation pathway differs significantly across institutional settings. The study suggests that technological supervision functions as a context-dependent governance mechanism whose effectiveness is influenced more by enforcement credibility than by visibility alone.