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Study on Determinants of Sugar Beans Import Demand in Eswatini (Swaziland)

. Ajay S. Singh, Sotja G. Dlamini, Daniel V. Dlamini and Thapelo A. Mamba


Sugar beans have been known to be one of the staple in Southern Africa where it is recognized as the second most important source of human dietary protein and the third most important source of calories. However, the kingdom of Eswatini is faced with the pandemonium of self- insufficiency in the production of the legume. The objectives of this study were to analysis sugar beans import trends for a period of 32 years in Eswatini and to estimate significant relationship between the determinants (the dependent variable and independent variables) of sugar beans import demand in Eswatini for a period of 32 years. The study adopted time series data from the year 1988 to 2020. This study adopted the double logarithm model with the import quantity of sugar beans being the dependent variable and the independent variables included sugar beans local production, Eswatini sugar beans consumption, sugar beans domestic price, Eswatini GDP, Eswatini Population, sugar beans import price, and the annual exchange rate. The data was tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey fuller test and AIC to select lags. Import quantity, consumption, population, and import price were found to be stationary at their level. Production, GDP, domestic price and annual exchange rate were found to be stationary at first differencing. Results revealed that consumption and local production are the major determinant of sugar beans import demand in Eswatini and these variables are significant at 1% level of significance in the short-run. Eswatini should adopt policies that will reduce the levels of sugar beans imports. This study found out that as the population increases, the level of sugar beans imports quantity decreases.


Keywords: Import demand, stationarity, and determinants, short-run and long-run relationship.

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